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The Winner’s Curse in Data-Driven Decision-Making
On February 10, 2026 at 4:00 pm till 5:00 pmFind out more »: The Winner’s Curse in Data-Driven Decision-Making
Location: E18-304
Abstract:
Data-driven decision-making relies on credible policy evaluation: we need to know whether a learned policy truly improves outcomes. This talk examines a key failure mode—the winner’s curse—where policy optimization exploits prediction error and selection, producing optimistic, often spurious performance gains.First, we show that model-based policy optimization and evaluation can report large, stable improvements even when common “reassurances” from the literature hold: training data come from randomized trials, estimated gains are large, and predictive models are accurate, well-calibrated, and stable. We give theoretical constructions where true improvements are zero yet predicted gains are substantial. We illustrate these pitfalls in a simulation study inspired by refugee matching, where widely-used model-based evaluation projects large employment gains of over 60% even when the ground truth effect is zero.
Second, we argue that avoiding this optimism pushes us toward model-free off-policy evaluation—but its variance can be prohibitive, making naïve “optimize then evaluate” pipelines unreliable. To this end, we introduce inference-aware policy optimization, which anticipates downstream model-free evaluation by optimizing both estimated performance and the probability that the estimated improvement will pass a significance test on held-out data. We characterize the Pareto frontier of this tradeoff and provide an algorithm to estimate it, enabling policies that are not only promising, but also testable.
Joint work with Osbert Bastani and Bryce McLaughlin.
Bio:
Hamsa Bastani is an Associate Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Her research focuses on developing novel machine learning algorithms for data-driven decision-making, with applications to healthcare operations, social good, and revenue management. Her work has received several recognitions, including the Wagner Prize for Excellence in Practice (2021), the Pierskalla Award for the best paper in healthcare (2016, 2019, 2021), the Behavioral OM Best Paper Award (2021), as well as first place in the George Nicholson and MSOM student paper competitions (2016). She previously completed her PhD at Stanford University, and spent a year as a Herman Goldstine postdoctoral fellow at IBM Research. -
A Mathematical Basis for Moravec’s Paradox, and Some Open Problems
On February 13, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pmFind out more »: A Mathematical Basis for Moravec’s Paradox, and Some Open ProblemsLocation: E18-304
Abstract: Moravec’s Paradox observes that AI systems have struggled far more with learning physical action than symbolic reasoning. Yet just recently, there has been a tremendous increase in the capability of AI-driven robotic systems, reminiscent of the early acceleration in language modeling capabilities a few years prior. Using the lens of control-theoretic stability, this talk will demonstrate an exponential separation between natural regimes for learning in the physical world and in discrete/symbolic settings, thereby providing a mathematical basis for Moravec’s famous observation. We then explain the recent progress in robot learning by establishing that the innovations that immediately preceded these advances—prediction of open-loop “action-chunks”, and use of generative models, such as diffusion models, to parametrize the conditional distribution of robot actions—directly mitigate the aforementioned difficulties. While our understanding of action chunking is rigorous, our findings regarding generative modeling are mainly empirical in nature. Thus, we conclude with open questions regarding how, under what conditions, and by what mechanisms popular generative models enjoy the properties uncovered in our experimental study.Bio: Max Simchowitz is an assistant professor at the Machine Learning Department at Carnegie Mellon University with a courtesy appointment in the Robotics Institute. His work studies theoretical foundations and new methodologies for machine learning problems with an interactive, sequential, or dynamical component, currently focusing on reinforcement learning and applications to robotics. His past work has ranged broadly across control, theoretical reinforcement learning, optimization and algorithmic fairness. He received his PhD from University of California, Berkeley in 2021 under Ben Recht and Michael I. Jordan, and completed his postdoctoral research under Russ Tedrake in the Robot Locomotion Group at MIT. His work has been recognized with an ICML 2018 Best Paper Award, ICML 2022 Outstanding Paper Award, and RSS 2023 and ICRA 2024 Best Paper Finalist designations.
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When do spectral gradient updates help in deep learning?
On February 20, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pmFind out more »: When do spectral gradient updates help in deep learning?Abstract: Spectral gradient methods, such as the recently proposed Muon optimizer, are a promising alternative to standard gradient descent for training deep neural networks and transformers. Yet, it remains unclear in which regimes these spectral methods are expected to perform better. In this talk, I will present a simple condition that predicts when a spectral update yields a larger decrease in the loss than a standard gradient step. Informally, this criterion holds when, on the one hand, the gradient of the loss with respect to each parameter block has a nearly uniform spectrum—measured by its nuclear-to-Frobenius ratio—while, on the other hand, the incoming activation matrix has low stable rank. It is this mismatch in the spectral behavior of the gradient and the propagated data that underlies the advantage of spectral updates. Reassuringly, this condition naturally arises in a variety of settings, including random feature models, neural networks, and transformer architectures. I will conclude by showing that these predictions align with empirical results in synthetic regression problems and in small-scale language model training.
Biosketch: Dmitriy Drusvyatskiy received his PhD from Cornell University in 2013, followed by a post doctoral appointment at University of Waterloo, 2013-2014. He joined the Mathematics department at University of Washington as an Assistant Professor in 2014 and was promoted to Full Professor in 2022. Since 2025, Dmitriy is a Professor at the Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute (HDSI) at UC San Diego. Dmitriy’s research broadly focuses on designing and analyzing algorithms for large-scale optimization problems, primarily motivated by applications in data science. Dmitriy has received a number of awards, including the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) Young Investigator Program (YIP) Award, NSF CAREER, SIAG/OPT Best Paper Prize 2023, Paul Tseng Faculty fellowship 2022-2026, INFORMS Optimization Society Young Researcher Prize 2019, and finalist citations for the Tucker Prize 2015 and the Young Researcher Best Paper Prize at ICCOPT 2019.
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Statistics and Data Science Seminar
On February 27, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pm -
IDSS Distinguished Speaker Seminar
On March 3, 2026 at 4:00 pm till 5:00 pm -
Statistics and Data Science Seminar
On March 6, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pm -
Statistics and Data Science Seminar
On March 13, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pm -
Statistics and Data Science Seminar
On March 20, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pm -
Statistics and Data Science Seminar
On April 3, 2026 at 11:00 am till 12:00 pm


