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Sampling rare events in Earth and planetary science
May 6 @ 11:00 am - 12:00 pm
Jonathan Weare, New York University
Abstract: This talk will cover recent work in our group developing and applying algorithms to simulate rare events in atmospheric science and other areas. I will review a rare event simulation scheme that biases model simulations toward the rare event of interest by preferentially duplicating simulations making progress toward the event and removing others. I will describe applications of this approach to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and instability of Mercury’s orbit with an emphasis on the elements of algorithm design that most affect performance.