Abstract: We introduce the jackknife+, a novel method for constructing predictive confidence intervals that is robust to the distribution of the data. The jackknife+ modifies the well-known jackknife (leaveoneout cross-validation) to account for the variability in the fitted regression function when we subsample the training data. Assuming exchangeable training samples, we prove that the jackknife+ permits rigorous coverage guarantees regardless of the distribution of the data points, for any algorithm that treats the training points symmetrically (in contrast, such guarantees…

Abstract: Properties of random projections of high-dimensional probability measures are of interest in a variety of fields, including asymptotic convex geometry, and potential applications to high-dimensional statistics and data analysis.   A particular question of interest is to identify what properties of the high-dimensional measure are captured by its lower-dimensional projections.   While fluctuations of these projections have been well studied over the past decade, we describe more recent work on the tail behavior of such projections, and various implications.  This talk is based on…

Abstract: We develop nonasymptotic concentration bounds for products of independent random matrices. Such products arise in the study of stochastic algorithms, linear dynamical systems, and random walks on groups. Our bounds exactly match those available for scalar random variables and continue the program, initiated by Ahlswede-Winter and Tropp, of extending familiar concentration bounds to the noncommutative setting. Our proof technique relies on geometric properties of the Schatten trace class. Joint work with D. Huang, J. A. Tropp, and R. Ward.…

Abstract: In 1993, Stephen A. Vavasis proved that in any finite dimension, there exists a faster method than gradient descent to find stationary points of smooth non-convex functions. In dimension 2 he proved that 1/eps gradient queries are enough, and that 1/sqrt(eps) queries are necessary. We close this gap by providing an algorithm based on a new local-to-global phenomenon for smooth non-convex functions. Some higher dimensional results will also be discussed. I will also present an extension of the 1/sqrt(eps)…