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Large Average Submatrices of a Gaussian Random Matrix: Landscapes and Local Optima

Andrew Nobel (UNC)

The problem of finding large average submatrices of a real-valued matrix arises in the exploratory analysis of data from disciplines as diverse as genomics and social sciences. This talk will present several new theoretical results concerning large average submatrices of an n x n Gaussian random matrix that are motivated in part by previous work on biomedical applications. We will begin by considering the average and distribution of the k x k submatrix having largest average value (the global maximum),…

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Incremental Methods for Additive Convex Cost Optimization

David Donoho (Stanford)
32-123

Motivated by machine learning problems over large data sets and distributed optimization over networks, we consider the problem of minimizing the sum of a large number of convex component functions. We study incremental gradient methods for solving such problems, which process component functions sequentially one at a time. We first consider deterministic cyclic incremental gradient methods (that process the component functions in a cycle) and provide new convergence rate results under some assumptions. We then consider a randomized incremental gradient…

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Overcoming Overfitting with Algorithmic Stability

Most applications of machine learning across science and industry rely on the holdout method for model selection and validation. Unfortunately, the holdout method often fails in the now common scenario where the analyst works interactively with the data, iteratively choosing which methods to use by probing the same holdout data many times. In this talk, we apply the principle of algorithmic stability to design reusable holdout methods, which can be used many times without losing the guarantees of fresh data.…

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Learning in Strategic Environments: Theory and Data

The strategic interaction of multiple parties with different objectives is at the heart of modern large scale computer systems and electronic markets. Participants face such complex decisions in these settings that the classic economic equilibrium is not a good predictor of their behavior. The analysis and design of these systems has to go beyond equilibrium assumptions. Evidence from online auction marketplaces suggests that participants rather use algorithmic learning. In the first part of the talk, I will describe a theoretical…

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On Shape Constrained Estimation

Shape constraints such as monotonicity, convexity, and log-concavity are naturally motivated in many applications, and can offer attractive alternatives to more traditional smoothness constraints in nonparametric estimation. In this talk we present some recent results on shape constrained estimation in high and low dimensions. First, we show how shape constrained additive models can be used to select variables in a sparse convex regression function. In contrast, additive models generally fail for variable selection under smoothness constraints. Next, we introduce graph-structured…

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On Complex Supervised Learning Problems, and On Ranking and Choice Models

Shivani Agarwal (Indian Institute of Science/Radcliffe)
32-123

While simple supervised learning problems like binary classification and regression are fairly well understood, increasingly, many applications involve more complex learning problems: more complex label and prediction spaces, more complex loss structures, or both. The first part of the talk will discuss recent advances in our understanding of such problems, including the notion of convex calibration dimension of a loss function, unified approaches for designing convex calibrated surrogates for arbitrary losses, and connections between supervised learning and property elicitation. The…

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Randomized Controlled Trials and Policy Making in Developing Countries

Twenty years ago, randomized controlled trials testing social policies were essentially unheard of in developing countries, although there were prominent examples in developed economies. Today their number, scale and scope is much greater than could probably have been imagined. This talk will take stock of the role that randomized controlled trials have played to date, and can play in the future, in guiding policy. We will try to assess both successes and tribulations, challenges and promises.

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Universal Laws and Architectures: Theory and Lessons from Brains, Nets, Hearts, Bugs, Grids, Flows, and Zombies

This talk will aim to accessibly describe progress on a theory of network architecture relevant to neuroscience, biology, medicine, and technology, particularly SDN/NFV and cyberphysical systems. Key ideas are motivated by familiar examples from neuroscience, including live demos using audience brains, and compared with examples from technology and biology. Background material and additional details are in online videos (accessible from website cds.caltech.edu/~doyle) for which this talk can be viewed as a short trailer. More specifically, my research is aimed at…

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Pairwise Comparison Models for High-Dimensional Ranking

Martin Wainwright (UC Berkeley)
32-123

Data in the form of pairwise comparisons between a collection of n items arises in many settings, including voting schemes, tournament play, and online search rankings. We study a flexible non-parametric model for pairwise comparisons, under which the probabilities of outcomes are required only to satisfy a natural form of stochastic transitivity (SST). The SST class includes a large family of classical parametric models as special cases, among them the Bradley-Terry-Luce and Thurstone models, but is substantially richer. We provide…

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Sub-Gaussian Mean Estimators

 Roberto Oliveira (IMPA)
32-123

We discuss the possibilities and limitations of estimating the mean of a real-valued random variable from independent and identically distributed observations from a non-asymptotic point of view. In particular, we define estimators with a sub-Gaussian behavior even for certain heavy-tailed distributions. We also prove various impossibility results for mean estimators. These results are in http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.05845, to appear in Ann Stat. (Joint work with L. Devroye, M. Lerasle, and G. Lugosi.)

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