Abstract: This talk will cover recent work in our group developing and applying algorithms to simulate rare events in atmospheric science and other areas. I will review a rare event simulation scheme that biases model simulations toward the rare event of interest by preferentially duplicating simulations making progress toward the event and removing others. I will describe applications of this approach to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and instability of Mercury's orbit with an emphasis on the elements of algorithm…

Abstract: Many existing literature on bandits and reinforcement learning assume a linear reward/value function, but what happens if the reward is non-linear? Two curious phenomena arise for non-linear bandits: first, in addition to the "learning phase" with a standard \Theta(\sqrt(T)) regret, there is an "initialization phase" with a fixed cost determined by the reward function; second, achieving the smallest cost of the initialization phase requires new learning algorithms other than traditional ones such as UCB. For a special family of…

ABSTRACT Recent advances in data collection have made sports an attractive testing ground for new analyses and algorithms, and a fascinating controlled microcosm in which to explore social interactions. In this talk I will describe two studies in this arena: one related to public health and the pandemic and one related to decision-making in basketball.  In the first, I will discuss what can be learned from the natural experiments that were (fortuitously) run in America football stadiums. During the 2020…

Abstract: Motivated by applications to single-particle cryo-electron microscopy, we study a problem of group orbit estimation where samples of an unknown signal are observed under uniform random rotations from a rotational group. In high-noise settings, we show that geometric properties of the log-likelihood function are closely related to algebraic properties of the invariant algebra of the group action. Eigenvalues of the Fisher information matrix are stratified according to a sequence of transcendence degrees in this invariant algebra, and critical points…

Abstract: I will present an algorithm which efficiently samples from the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) measure with no external field at high temperature. The approach is based on the stochastic localization process of Eldan, together with a subroutine for computing the mean vectors of a family of SK measures tilted by an appropriate external field. This approach is general and can potentially be applied to other discrete or continuous non-log-concave problems. We show that the algorithm outputs a sample within vanishing rescaled Wasserstein…